There’s an important election coming up on 22 September. Germany goes to the polls and everyone’s expecting current Chancellor, Angela Merkel, to be reinstated. If you didn’t catch my previous post, click here to get a quick primer on the election and the parties involved. Regardless of where the votes go later this month, there are several policy steps that Germany will have to address in 2014 regarding its European neighbors: bonds, bailouts, and banking unions. Read more
Posts tagged ‘Angela Merkel’
If you haven’t heard mention of it in the news, or read about it in the papers or your portfolio manager’s commentary, there’s an election coming up in Germany. It’s important too! The outcome of this election has implications well beyond Germany, and well beyond Europe. In this post, we’ll look over the basics of the election, so that you’ll know how to make sense of the results when they come later this month.
First, why is this election so important? There are a couple of main reasons. Germany is one of the main centres of gravity for the European Union. Their export-driven economy is the engine driving a nascent EU recovery, and Germany’s ability to continue churning out that growth is highly interrelated with the domestic policy agenda of the government. Secondly, Germany’s one of the big wheels in the EU and almost nothing gets done without its approval. Read more
For those involved in trading the fixed income markets, August is usually one of the more mundane months. Issuance of new corporate debt slows down significantly since many global investment professionals are on vacation, forced two-week leaves, or holidays, which results in liquidity that is much more challenging. But unlike past years, we’re entering into a September time frame that is poised to be anything but boring, thus causing a likely increase in volatility. So just like the coming attractions at your local movie theater, this is what we have to look forward to in the month of September:
Specific events and their release date:
- “The Last Picture Show” (September 6) – On this Friday, the final major piece of the employment puzzle, the August non-farm payrolls, will be released to the market. This will either confirm the prevailing wisdom regarding the underlying strength of the U.S. economy and the likelihood of tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing program, or it will provide a difficult conflicting perspective only days before the FOMC meeting. Read more
You may already know this, but because Santa Claus only works for one night a year, he occupies the rest of his time with detailed statistical analysis. That’s why he keeps detailed lists of all the “naughty” and “nice” children. It is, however, little known that Santa Claus also keeps various sub-lists for his statistical analyses. One of these lists is his Economic Naughty and Nice List. To get on Santa’s Economic Nice List, the subject must be achieving positive results for the economy. Santa’s Economic Naughty List contains those who, through action or inaction, do their economies harm. I happen to have seen a leaked portion of the list (Wikileaks again!) and wanted to share here. Read more